by Franz M. Schmid-Preissler

„One billion are one thousand million“. - True. I was recently asked why I had mentioned that. My answer was that I got the impression that we have lost the feeling for billions and millions. What’s a billion, or ten or a hundred? The financial crisis we are experiencing globally demonstrates in an alarming fashion that the people, or better we all have lost our grasp of numbers.

Legions of institutes, financial and economic wise men, of whom we no longer know what their wisdom comes from and consists of, think tanks, the media and not forgetting hosts of controllers produce loads of figures which they want to use to lead us. However what shows more and more is that they are trying to mislead us. In general, “faith, love, hope” seems to be the formula which is used for computation. That due to a correction in economic growth of half a percent several hundred thousand jobs can be at risk, and I contend that this does not matter to anyone. Yes, I argue that it does not matter to anyone, because how else could the impertinence used to manipulate figures today be explained?

He, who knows me from my work, knows how careful I am with figures and that I like to do without numbers games in forecasts, guidelines and strategies. Of course, we cannot work totally without figures, but if we express ourselves in figures instead of words, then the same applies as for the spoken word, namely truthfulness.

If “controlling” issues guidelines for business planning without ever having spoken to a single customer, let alone reeled in an order, if they only rely on market research data and forecasts from others and base their work on obscure and vague numerical constructions, then whatever they deliver is no more than playing games with numbers.

In Germany someone recently verified how accurate the so-called “Committee of Wise Men” has been in its calculations of future growth in the past years. The result was not very flattering. The consequence of this is that the government publishes own forecasts with downward revised figures.

No matter where, in politics, in the economy or in single businesses, the handling of figures has become dangerously casual. It is not that the single responsible person intentionally and grossly negligent ignores the principles of righteousness in each and every case. But this loss of a grasp of figures that has taken place to a large extent makes one lose inhibitions and the presumption that the people do not really want to know exactly what is going on tops it all. Figures as parameter for expected or obligatory services to be performed are only of value if they are rooted in real value. Assumptions and conjectures that are no more than what’s behind faith, love, hope, have to be banned from numbers games. This is not the time for Monopoly.

My recommendation on how to get out of this vicious cycle is simple as a start: We have to get used to it once again to realize that one billion is one thousand million.