What did Apple CEO Steve Jobs mean, when he was recently quoted as saying: „Why should I query people if that what they want is hiding in every corner?“ Market research, so the quote continues, is the science of the approximate and as such unacceptable to him.

Looking at the reasons for the success story Apple, one could really get the impression that the avoidance of market research saves from the risk of simply following others instead of developing something truly new and groundbreaking, if market research data is paid attention to. The American automotive industry on the contrary has tried to avoid risks by only developing such vehicles whose optic and properties met the taste of the consumers according to market research data. The assumed risk avoidance was turned into the opposite - due to disregard of the basic conditions lack of fuel and environmental conservation – however it took a very long time, because for decades through the short-term thinking of company management this proofed to be sustainable for a very long time. (*see footnote). That market research and innovation are two very different things, is obvious. Politicians tend to dismiss negative market research results with the notice that they are no more than snap-shots at a given instant which has already lost its validity at the time of publication.

But throw away market research due to that?

In order to reflect the value of market research one should remember its function. It is not typically a tool of innovation, even if new products in general are introduced to a test audience first. Market research only has a very limited ability of detecting demand for something truly new. Typically, market research is the measurement of a reaction, in other words it belongs into the category of market feedback. Applied early on and correctly, it helps to see and understand some things sooner and a bit more clearly. Hardly ever does it deliver absolute results. However, it can be used to establish conclusions and reciprocal effects in regard to hypotheses in time.

Of course, creative decisions should be made using intuition and a drive for progress. And surely, Steve Jobs is not going to rely on a whim when it comes to new projects. And neither are his board or his shareholders. To convince them, Steve Jobs needs to have a little more on hand. That he is no standard John Doe American consumer, the Apple CEO knows very well. This is not going to work without a systematic review if the path taken is the correct one, and the implementation of the findings market research provides.

We do not expect market research to tell us, what it is you want to wear, eat or drink tomorrow, where you want to vacation in the future and what electronic appliances are supposed to look like. But we do expect from market research that it helps us to verify, if we are on track with our developments.

However, modern market research can do more than that. We increasingly depend on the findings of which values the people are geared to today and in the future and then draw the correct long-term conclusions for market requirements in the future in regard to timeline. In other words, get a feeling for the future. Market research is a way to enliven curiosity. And as such, Steve Jobs is not really going to be opposed to market research. But he is going to use less market research institutes and is going to listen more to what the market has to tell him, what he ought to invent. This is where he applies his own brilliant intellect and that of thirty-thousand employees in his development center.

What is dangerous about market research is the temptation to project findings into the figures. This is not a phenomenon of our times. Ernest Dichter, psychologist and pioneer of market psychology showed us over fifty years ago, that instead of researching the market grosso modo, it would be better to seek the immerged conversation with few people in order to get motivational answers to certain questions.

Market research does not eliminate risks, but it does widen the perception and way of thinking, it can encourage us to leave beaten paths and to think before acting, to be open and to come to the conclusion that only a few are so lucky to be so brilliant that they can dictate the contents of the future (even though not the demand). Steve Jobs has achieved this and this is why he is allowed to shrug off (in retrospective) market research as less important. He will forgive the rest of the world if they use market research more frequently than he does. We will continue to use it in the way we described above in the future. That much we are sure about the future.

The French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the following about statistics and statistical figures in Davos, on the occasion of the opening of the World Economic Forum 2010:

Our entire system of statistical assessment had been distorted, too. In the statistics, we noted the increase in revenues. In life, we saw a widening inequality gap. In the statistics the standard of living was rising, but meanwhile the number of those feeling ever more keenly the hardships of life was also constantly increasing. Let us read through the report from the Commission led by Joseph Stiglitz, Amartya Sen and Jean-Paul Fitoussi on the measurement of economic performance and social progress: to ask ourselves questions about how we measure these things is to ask ourselves what our goals are. Such reflections must not be the exclusive province of experts and statisticians. We have to leave behind the culture of experts who talk only among themselves, each in their own field. We have to learn to think things through together, to discuss together problems which, whatever their technical specifics, are the concern of all. We will not be able to change our set ways if we do not change the way we measure and represent things, our criteria. That is not an issue only for the experts. It concerns us all.

*BriefLetter published on January 15th, 2009 Dr. Thomas Schürrle: “The Benefit of the Crisis”