Towards the end of the year, indices are flickering across the screen several times a day, where institutes and market research businesses try to get a grip on economic developments, to commentate on them and release their evaluation of the future. A flood of data and commentaries get through to us. What is the value of such data and commentaries for the evaluation of ones own position on the market and what is their influence on strategic considerations? Should they have any type of influence on our strategic contemplations? The flood of data and commentaries state conflicting information, instead of producing a clear picture of market development. This is reason for me to view these indices with care and scepticism.

When a German institute publishes that the business climate index decreases from one month to the next from 98.5 to 97.5 and the commentary given states the following: The future outlook for the German economy is little encouraging, then to me this is not just an absurd commentary. In my opinion, this explanation is drawing a non-attestable conclusion from source material based on opinion polls. One point more or less does not allow for drawing such macroeconomic conclusions and commentating on them. The same applies to the evaluation of the American wholesale trade index or the evaluation of the unemployment statistics of Japan, just to name two more examples.

The success of a business depends most of all on the strengths of ones own business. Macroeconomic and general conditions only play a secondary role. This is why it does not make sense to act in accordance with what others think and how they evaluate the perspectives of business of tomorrow. This applies to reputedly good news as well as not so good news. It is ones own strengths which let us be successful in the long run and not the weaknesses of the competition.

The foundation for successful strategies is solely the potential of the business. Indices of research institutes or dazzling prophecies of trend researchers or commentaries of analysts do not define the success of a business. This helps us to judge and evaluate these prophets, analysts and their helper, the media, correctly.